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ASSURANT, INC. (AIZ)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered solid growth despite higher catastrophe losses: Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $381.4M and ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to $431.5M, led by Global Housing; GAAP diluted EPS was $3.87, while Adjusted EPS was $4.79 and Adjusted EPS ex-cat was $5.54 .
  • Global Housing was the standout: Adjusted EBITDA up 21% YoY (32% ex-cat) on top-line expansion and favorable loss experience; policies in-force rose strongly and non-cat loss ratios remained favorable per call commentary .
  • 2025 outlook introduced “modest” growth for company-wide Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS ex-cat (high-single-digit growth excluding 2024’s $106.7M PYD tailwind); Global Housing ex-cat expected to decline modestly due to lapping PYD; California wildfires are expected to approach or slightly exceed the $150M per-event retention .
  • Capital deployment remained robust: Q4 holding company liquidity was $673M; Q4 capital return totaled $161M (559K shares repurchased for $120M; dividends $41M); dividend increased 11% to $0.80 in Nov-2024 and maintained at $0.80 for Mar-2025 .
  • Catalysts: Sustained Housing outperformance, scaling Connected Living launches (e.g., card benefits and home tech), clarity on wildfire losses/reinsurance, and continued buybacks/dividend strength .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Global Housing executed strongly: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA up 21% YoY (32% ex-cat) driven by Homeowners growth (higher policies in-force, higher average premiums) and lower non-cat loss experience .
    • Management highlighted deep commercial momentum and renewals across mobile, housing and renters; CEO: “our momentum with clients is at an all-time high” .
    • Enterprise cash generation supported increased capital returns; holding company liquidity reached $673M; added to the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats index and raised dividend 11% .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Catastrophe losses were higher YoY: Q4 reportable cats were $50.1M vs $21.6M; enterprise Adjusted EBITDA included $28.5M higher cats .
    • Global Lifestyle EBITDA down 6% YoY in Q4, primarily on lower real estate JV income in Automotive and incremental Connected Living investments; connected mobile trade-in volumes faced mixed promotional activity .
    • Q3 results were pressured by elevated cats ($138.2M) and a non-run-rate adjustment in Housing; Automotive ancillary GAP losses remain elevated (though risk is being reduced) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$2.925 $2.968 $3.105
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$3.58 $2.55 $3.87
Adjusted EPS ($)$4.08 $3.00 $4.79
Adjusted EPS ex-cat ($)$4.77 $5.08 $5.54
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$323.4 $246.9 $381.4
Adjusted EBITDA ex-cat ($USD Millions)$369.1 $385.1 $431.5
Reportable Catastrophes (pre-tax, $USD Millions)$45.7 $138.2 $50.1
Net Earned Premiums, Fees and Other Income ($USD Billions)$2.82 $2.85 $2.99

Segment breakdown – Adjusted EBITDA:

Segment ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Global Lifestyle$189.7 $184.3 $191.7
Global Housing$160.9 $92.4 $225.4
Corporate & Other$(27.2) $(29.8) $(35.7)

Segment breakdown – Net earned premiums, fees and other income:

Segment ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Global Lifestyle$2,183.5 $2,249.5 $2,346.5
Global Housing$633.6 $603.8 $647.4

KPIs and capital:

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Holding Company Liquidity ($USD Millions)$735 $636 $673
Capital Returned ($USD Millions)$80 (repurchases + dividends) $138 (repurchases + dividends) $161 (repurchases + dividends)
Lender-Placed Placement Rate / PIF—Placement rate 1.92% YTD PIF up ~16% YoY

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ex-cat (Assurant)FY 2024 (Q3 guide) vs FY 2025 (Q4 guide)FY24: Low double-digit growth FY25: Modest growth; high-single-digit ex-2024 PYD ($106.7M) Lower vs FY24 guide
Adjusted EPS ex-catFY 2024 (Q3 guide) vs FY 2025 (Q4 guide)FY24: Mid- to high-teens growth FY25: Modest growth; high-single-digit ex-2024 PYD Lower vs FY24 guide
Global Lifestyle Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: Modest increase FY25: Increase from Connected Living and Automotive Maintained/positive
Global Housing Adjusted EBITDA ex-catFY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: Strong growth FY25: Decrease modestly; strong underlying growth ex-PYD; wildfires near $150M retention Lower
Corporate & Other Adjusted EBITDA lossFY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: ≈ $(115)M FY25: ≈ $(115)M (improvement vs 2024 actual per management) Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: ~18–20% FY25: ~20–22% Higher
Depreciation Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: ~$135 FY25: ~$165 Higher
Interest Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: ~$107 FY25: ~$107 Unchanged
Amortization of Purchased Intangibles ($USD Millions)FY 2024 vs FY 2025FY24: ~$70 FY25: ~$65 Lower
Dividend per shareQ4 2024 vs Q1 2025Increased to $0.80 (Nov-2024) $0.80 declared for Mar-31, 2025 Maintained at higher level

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
AI/technology/automationLaunched device care center near Nashville leveraging automation, robotics and AI to enhance mobile supply chain; continued investments and scaling Reinforced incorporation of automation, robotics, and AI at the device care center; scaling new Connected Living programs (e.g., Protection 360 Home Tech) Expanding adoption and impact
Connected Living growthAdded 1.6M subscribers from Spectrum/Telstra; card benefits program with Chase; investments temper near-term EBITDA Scaling new partnerships; incremental investments expected to have ~1-year payback; targeting marquee wins in 2025 Momentum improving
Global AutomotiveElevated claims/GAP losses; rate actions (14 increases across 5 clients) to stabilize; moderation emerging Claims stable sequentially; GAP risk further reduced; expect growth in 2025 as rates earn through Stabilizing with improving outlook
Housing (Homeowners)Strong top-line growth; expense leverage; placement rate up; lender-placed policy growth from hard voluntary markets Q4 non-cat loss frequency favorable; PIF up ~16% YoY; expect mid-80s combined ratio even with wildfires; prior-year development tailwind in 2024 discussed Continued outperformance; lap PYD in 2025
Reinsurance & cat outlook2024 program robust; no tower hit through season; Hurricane guidance provided Expect similar program structure effective Apr-1; California wildfires near $150M retention; cat load update to come in May Coverage robust; monitoring 2025 cat load
FX/tariffs/macroFX headwind muted growth; inflation/interest rates monitored FX headwind “couple of points”; tariffs not in guidance; discussed potential claims input costs and demand impacts FX headwind persists; tariff uncertainty
Renters/PMC channelPMC GWP growth double-digit; technology platforms (TechPro, Cover360) scaling Continued PMC strength; renewed tech-enabled services to raise attachment Sustained growth trajectory

Management Commentary

  • “2024 was a testament to the power of our differentiated business model… momentum with clients is at an all-time high” (CEO Keith Demmings) .
  • “We continue to invest in… leading-edge technology including the incorporation of automation, robotics and AI at our device care center” (CEO) .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA [Global Housing] increased 21%… Excluding reportable catastrophes, Adjusted EBITDA increased 32%” (press release narrative) .
  • “We believe we should be valued at a premium to the S&P 1500 P&C index median” (CEO) .
  • “For the recent wildfires in California… reportable catastrophes… expected to approach or slightly exceed our per-event catastrophe reinsurance program retention of $150 million” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Housing placement rate and PIF: PIF up ~16% YoY; growth driven by client growth, California hard market, and broader U.S. dynamics; placement rate momentum likely continues (not at same pace) .
  • FX and investments headwinds: FX headwind “a couple of points”; incremental investments ~1–2 points headwind, with 2024 ~$25M investments expected to fully pay back in 2025 .
  • Wildfires/reinsurance: Expect wildfires near $150M retention; similar 2025 reinsurance structure; cat load guidance in May .
  • Tariffs: Not in guidance; potential impact on claims parts/materials and demand; management confident in pricing/inflation guard and client playbooks to mitigate .
  • Auto/GAP: Claims stable sequentially; GAP losses short-term and risk reduced; VSC rate actions earning through .
  • Housing combined ratio: Management targets mid-80s combined ratio in 2025 even including wildfires; non-cat loss ratio high 30s, expense ratio high 30s, ~10 points of cats .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 was unavailable due to data-access limitations; as a result, we cannot compare reported results to consensus in this recap. We attempted to retrieve “Primary EPS Consensus Mean,” “Revenue Consensus Mean,” “EBITDA Consensus Mean,” and estimate counts for Q4 2024 but encountered request-limit errors. No estimates are presented to avoid speculation [GetEstimates errors].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Housing remains the core earnings engine: Q4 ex-cat Adjusted EBITDA up 32% in Housing; expect underlying growth in 2025 even as PYD laps and wildfire losses impact near-term results .
  • Connected Living scaling drive multi-year growth: 2024 investments (card benefits, mobile/home tech) have ~1-year payback; expect EBITDA benefits through 2025; continued marquee client wins are a catalyst .
  • Auto headwinds stabilizing: Sequential claims stabilization and earned rate increases point to improving trajectory in 2025; reduced GAP risk lowers volatility .
  • Capital allocation remains supportive: Strong liquidity, buybacks ($24M through Feb-7, 2025), and a 20th consecutive annual dividend increase to $0.80; continued returns likely underpin valuation .
  • Watch May update: Reinsurance finalization and cat load (including wildfire estimates) will sharpen 2025 cat outlook and help frame Housing’s ex-cat earnings path .
  • Macro sensitivities: FX headwinds continue; tariff impacts could raise claims input costs; management’s pricing/inflation guard mechanisms provide mitigation .
  • Valuation narrative: Management sees premium vs P&C peers given cash generation, diversified B2B2C model, and sustained multi-year growth record; sustained execution in Housing and Lifestyle could be a re-rating catalyst .